Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
